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The impact of monetary policy and the housing market in the Czech republic
Šuslik, David
I analyse impacts of monetary policy on housing prices and real household credit in the Czech Republic using structural VAR model identified by Cholesky decomposition. I focus on the period after the financial crisis from 2008, through the period of near zero interest rates from 2014 to 2017 until the end of 2022. I dedicate a chapter to major policy decisions of Czech National Bank in relation to housing market and household credit. My empirical strategy closely follows Bjørnland and Jacobsen, (2010). I identify six economic variables, namely exchange rate, GDP, inflation, interest rate, household credit and house price index. Subsequently I calculate their impact on housing prices and household credit in the Czech Republic. My estimations confirm findings of Robstad, (2018) that house prices respond stronger to monetary policy shocks in comparison with household credit. Yet, another finding is that household credit does not respond to interest rate shock while real house prices exhibit positive response. However, magnitude of this effect is relatively small in comparison with shocks from remaining variables.
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Determinants of Residential Property Prices in Russian Federation
Burešová, Kristina ; Kalabiška, Roman (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
The thesis investigates the determinants of apartment prices in Russia. We examined the relationships between quarterly apartment prices in the primary and secondary markets and a wide range of explanatory variables using a het- erogeneous panel of 73 regions from 2005 Q1 to 2019 Q4. Because the variables were co-integrated, the long-run relationships were estimated using a panel dynamic OLS. The short-run dynamic was captured by the error correction model. Wages and construction costs were found to be the core determinants of apartment prices in both the primary and secondary markets. Construc- tion costs were dominant in the primary market and wages in the secondary market. Unemployment, age structure, migration, exchange rate index, and existing apartment area per capita were identified as additional price determi- nants. Negative error correction terms implied that, following a market shock, apartment prices would revert to their long-run equilibria. The sample was then divided into subsets containing wealthy and poor regions to test for ro- bustness. The regression results suggested di erent dynamics in the wealthy regions, but otherwise confirmed the results' robustness. Finally, subperiods were subjected to indicative analysis. However, no significant changes were observed following the 2008...
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Home Ownership vs. Renting: Comparison of Costs in the Czech Republic
Tláskalová, Andrea ; Hejlová, Hana (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis develops a cost-benefit analysis of ownership versus renting and investigates the net present values of these alternatives within three different investment and consumption strategies. In order to investigate interactions among the variables and to perform a more detailed analysis, microdata on real estate purchase offers and real estate rental offers are used. Due to the size of the real estate market and the diversity of property types, we focus our analysis on the real estates located in Prague. The thesis' results indicate that ownership is more profitable than renting under the conditions of only one group out of twelve. However, the thesis presents values of three key parameters of home ownership costs for which ownership would be equally profitable as renting. Finally, we attempt to explain the price-to-rent ratio using various apartment characteristics. The OLS regression method uncovers negative impact of the ground floor variable and the panel building variable on the ratio, resulting in higher relative affordability of buying when compared to renting. Number of rooms variable, on the contrary, shows positive impact on the ratio and an additional room in an apartment results in lower relative affordability of buying when compared to renting.
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Housing prices in Prague- their developments and prediction
Petr, Adam ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Rippel, Milan (referee)
The housing prices in Prague had risen by more than 63% between 2002 and 2008. However since August 2008, when they reached their peak, they have been almost constantly falling. Most of the publications regarding housing prices are taking into account Prague as one of the Czech regions. On the contrary, this work analyzes housing prices in Prague and its 22 districts. In first part of this work the indicators of rent-to-price ratio, price-to-income ratio and new building development factors are considered to explain possible future development of housing prices. This is seemed to continue falling during the year 2011. The second analytical part tries to explain the housing prices according to specific locality features and macroeconomic aspects. The panel regression is used and it reveals that the most significant attributes are the macroeconomic features.
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Housing Prices in the Czech Republic and Slovakia: Regional Comparison
Cempírek, Petr ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Žigraiová, Diana (referee)
The objective of the present Bachelor's thesis is to compare the behavior of housing prices in the Czech Republic and Slovakia using econometric analysis. First, the author presents the historical context and basic housing indicators. After verifying that variables in dataset are cointegrated, a panel DOLS es- timator for modelling housing prices is employed. The author uses quarterly regional data in order to analyze the response of basic housing price fundamen- tals in the two countries that formed one federation until 1992. By forming a short run equation with an error-correction term the author checks for the existence of long run housing price equilibrium and for the speed of price rever- sion to equilibrium in case it is misaligned. The author then focuses on housing price misalignments as well as their dynamics in the individual regions.
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The effect of monetary stimulus on housing prices and the relationship of housing and rental prices in European countries
Hönig, Maximilian ; Kalabiška, Roman (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
iv Abstract As real estate is an important part of the wealth composition of households, this the impact of the financial stimulus that was observed throughout 2020 and how it might have affected housing prices in various European countries. For this the thesis runs a Vector Error Correction Model with the following independent variables: population, exchange rate, inflation, short-term interest rate, unemployment rate and the compensation of employees. The time frame for this regression is restricted to 2000Q1 to 2019Q4 in order to exclude the housing price development throughout 2020 that is already affected by the financial stimulus. These regression results are then used in combination with the 2020 actuals of all independent variables to approximate the expected housing price without financial stimulus. This gives an indication of a potential overpricing in the markets and provides an understanding of how financial stimulus might be connected to housing prices. Another analysis in this thesis then provides an understanding of the leader-follower relationship of housing prices and rental prices and provides an analysis on how this might be connected to the level of home ownership in a particular market. JEL Classification F62, J11, R30 Keywords Real Estate, Covid-19, Financial Stimulus Title The effect...
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Can macroprudential policies curb house price booms? International evidence
Šváb, Ondřej ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This thesis examines the effectiveness of macroprudential policies on reducing housing price growth in the international database of 56 countries with the use of GMM and fixed effects between 2000 and 2017. The macroprudential index is added to the dynamic panel data model where the housing price index is regressed on housing price determinants as the economic growth or unemployment rate. The analysis is also conducted on the sample of countries with a higher market share of owners with a mortgage as there is a higher opportunity to control the housing market through the credit channel. Nevertheless, results show that we do not have enough evidence to state that macroprudential policies curb house price booms. Contrarily, the effect seems to work in the opposite direction which is probably caused by a reverse causality between the growth of real estate prices and the implementation of macroprudential tools. The debt-to-income restriction is the only tool that decreases housing price growth according to the fixed effects model. Detailed counterfactual analysis of the Czech market proposes only a slight impact of the loan-to-value measure on the apartment price development according to one out of four predictions. 1
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Real estate price modelling with a focus on location attributes
Charvát, Ondřej ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Hejlová, Hana (referee)
The thesis introduces several methods of real estate price modelling suitable either for prediction of the housing prices or for exploring the relationships between the price and its determinants. We compared the conventional linear regression approach to the tree-based methods of machine learning. The comparison analysis on the dataset of 28 019 apartments in Prague suggests that regression trees (especially the Random forest) yield a higher accuracy in the price prediction. Another objective was to examine the effects of location attributes (especially its accessibility and environmental quality) on the prices of nearby apartments. To address the spatial interactions in the geographical data, we employed three spatially conscious models to achieve more reliable results. The local analysis performed with the geographically weighted regression confirmed the presence of spatial heterogeneity and described the price effects relative to the location. In some areas, an increase of 100 meters in distance from the nearest metro station and the nearest park are associated with a decrease in the apartment prices by 644 CZK/m2 and 916 CZK/m2 , respectively. These findings are especially important for the apartments near the stations of the new metro line, which is currently in construction.
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Evolution of housing prices and its determinants in CEE
Šedivý, Jakub ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Pečená, Magda (referee)
As housing is one of the important parts of gross domestic product and one of the most significant components of people's wealth it is vital to investigate the determinants of its prices. Therefore, we analyze housing prices in Central and Eastern European coun- tries using pooled mean group estimator and vector autoregressive models. The objective of this thesis is to find out whether the fundamentals of housing prices are comparable across different countries and how the shocks in the economy affect housing pricese. For our analysis we used housing prices per square metre, GDP per capita, unemployment rates, 5-year interest rates, harmonised indices of consumer prices and construction cost indices. The conclusions of using pooled mean group estimator suggest that GDP, un- employment, interest rate and HICP indeed significantly affect the housing prices. The results of empirical analysis of individual countries using vector autoregressive model con- clude that shocks in the determinants affect housing prices with lags of 2 to 3 quarters and that the individual countries are driven by slightly different fundamentals.
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Home Ownership vs. Renting: Comparison of Costs in the Czech Republic
Tláskalová, Andrea ; Hejlová, Hana (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis develops a cost-benefit analysis of ownership versus renting and investigates the net present values of these alternatives within three different investment and consumption strategies. In order to investigate interactions among the variables and to perform a more detailed analysis, microdata on real estate purchase offers and real estate rental offers are used. Due to the size of the real estate market and the diversity of property types, we focus our analysis on the real estates located in Prague. The thesis' results indicate that ownership is more profitable than renting under the conditions of only one group out of twelve. However, the thesis presents values of three key parameters of home ownership costs for which ownership would be equally profitable as renting. Finally, we attempt to explain the price-to-rent ratio using various apartment characteristics. The OLS regression method uncovers negative impact of the ground floor variable and the panel building variable on the ratio, resulting in higher relative affordability of buying when compared to renting. Number of rooms variable, on the contrary, shows positive impact on the ratio and an additional room in an apartment results in lower relative affordability of buying when compared to renting.
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